Topics: institutional trading, asset management and monetary policy. Tweets are opinions only and are not intended as advice.
New York, USA
Joined August 2017
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Reading Luna threads. Sad of course. But shocking to see so many demands for bailouts. And bailouts from a central decision-maker, no less.
Crypto's rise was partly a rejection of this ethos that defined trad finance post-2008. UST/Luna shows how badly some have lost the plot.
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Reading some UST/Luna threads. The mix of anger, resignation and hope ("just hold, it will recover!") is exactly like the Yahoo and Silicon Investor message boards for countless tech stocks 20 years ago.
Meanwhile, Amazon and a handful of other leaders quietly kept building.
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Last Oct I tweeted:
"The Fed and political establishment fear nothing more than inflation. Expect desperation, word salads, and crazy measures."
File this under "word salads." Price controls, starting to be mentioned, will be part of "crazy measures."
Much more of this coming.
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An untold story is how many institutional guys got hurt in Terra/Luna. This was not just a retail blowup. Causing a harsh reappraisal of involvement in the space beyond BTC and a handful of others, which should benefit from redirected capital flows as the sector stabilizes.
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The talent migration into BTC/crypto has been huge. Some of the smartest people in the world. Includes some of NYC/tradfi's best.
This is when all those smart people stop looking at prices and focus on building. See companies like AMZN post-Y2K (but faster timeline/recovery).
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If "Federal Reserve/money printing" isn't given as an option, people can't vote for it. See how that works? Out of sight, out of mind.
Do you think that was a simple oversight by the pollsters?
Americans are almost unanimous in thinking that inflation is a problem. They don't agree on what's causing it.
Results from our latest survey with @MomentiveAI:
nytimes.com/live/2022/05/11/…
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Fed watcher back to Volcker. Based on history, I'd be surprised if they let markets continue to tank w/o some dovish crumbs. Does NOT mean a pivot (will come later and will be huge). Oil does complicate things for them. Watch for something on a Mon morning if Sun futs down big.
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Again today, even as stocks get hit.
Fed hawkishness at this point is as much an anti-Russia effort as a general anti-inflation one. The oil part is not working well. That should have your radar up.
Noticed the increase in unhinged and apocalyptic military rhetoric recently?
Oil higher despite rate hikes, slowing economy, and Fed efforts to talk it down (yes, this is what recent hints of 75bps were about). The pressure this puts on the political and monetary establishment cannot be overstated. Premium on distractions and scapegoats. Dangerous time.
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Just looked at Coinbase's pro platform. Of the 100+ assets listed, only two are green. Literally just two. One obscure one, and this. Ongoing relational trend that will likely strengthen now.
Posted last year.
I feel bad for anyone who got burned this week (and by alts generally in recent months). Retweeting this not as a flex, but to hopefully help people (esp those not around 20 yrs ago) see the historical parallel. I think it continues to play out in coming years.
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Posted last year.
I feel bad for anyone who got burned this week (and by alts generally in recent months). Retweeting this not as a flex, but to hopefully help people (esp those not around 20 yrs ago) see the historical parallel. I think it continues to play out in coming years.
Been saying for years that crypto=internet in 1990s (and BTC=AMZN). But many net companies from 90s failed. For an investor, big sin is to get a disruptive sector right but bet on the wrong horse. Saw it happen to many guys 20 yrs ago. Lesson: Side bets ok but focus on leader(s).
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In an SEC filing today, Townsquare Media (NYSE: TSQ), based in New York, stated:
"During the first quarter of 2022, the Company invested an aggregate of $5.0 million in Bitcoin. The Company believes in the long-term potential of digital assets as an investment."
The company...
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reported $50.9 million of cash and cash equivalents as of March 31.
Filing:
sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edg…
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Seeing pain on the timeline. I'm sympathetic. Advice: Take it easy and don't do anything dumb. Seen many sits like this over the decades, including as a market maker for a top global desk in 1990s volatility. Now that was crazy. Times like this always pass and fade in importance.
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I thought after 2008 that the Fed might finally get some real scrutiny and reform. Should we hold our breath this time?
They've created an economy that maniacally veers between euphoria and fear. This is becoming a threat to the basic fabric of the country.
@SenateGOP @HouseGOP
Will Congressional Republicans send a letter to the Fed demanding it retain all private communications related to inflation and transitory?
Post-midterms, this should be a top investigative priority. Did the Fed's public statements match its internal ones?
@SenateGOP @HouseGOP
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For an institution that's done the homework and is looking to buy BTC as a long-term position but allocate gradually, pretty hard to justify not taking at least a small starter position here. Doesn't mean this is the bottom. But you're ok with that because you'd work lower too.
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Posted in April at 40k.
"Months from now and from a lower level"...getting there, albeit painfully.
Crucial in these types of setups:
-Rationally sized positions
-No leverage
-No rent money
-Patience
A career-maker of a trade is setting up. These are rare. Could start months from now and from a lower level. But everything is aligning for BTC: macro, technology, generational interest, political (pro-BTC party set to run DC). Only weight on price is Fed. Watch them like a hawk.
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Oil higher despite rate hikes, slowing economy, and Fed efforts to talk it down (yes, this is what recent hints of 75bps were about). The pressure this puts on the political and monetary establishment cannot be overstated. Premium on distractions and scapegoats. Dangerous time.
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Tweeted in January. I've seen nothing from the Fed since then to convince me otherwise. And that includes today.
Watch what they DO...not what they (or Fed watchers) say.
Sometime this year, we'll be in the stage of the monetary policy cycle where a whole new group of investors realizes the Fed never intended to be as hawkish as everyone thought.
They'll be pissed about getting fooled and will vow to know better next time.
Wash rinse repeat.
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Like clockwork:
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