Monitoring wastewater for viral load estimates outbreak size In just a few weeks, in Pretoria S. Africa (north of Johannesburg) viral load detected in wastewater has reached similar levels as the peak of Delta This at least indicates that transmission may be remarkably swift
Nov 29, 2021 · 1:12 AM UTC
More information on this metric can be found here. IMO this offers a fairly unbiased view into viral load at a population level which, barring major changes in the viral loads within individuals, can be extrapolated to an extent to cases or prevalence across a population.
Here is the website: nicd.ac.za/diseases-a-z-inde…
WASTEWATER-BASED EPIDEMIOLOGY FOR SARS-COV-2 IN SOUTH AFRICA - NICD
WASTEWATER-BASED EPIDEMIOLOGY FOR SARS-COV-2 IN SOUTH AFRICA This report summarises and interprets findings from detection and quantification of SARS-CoV-2 levels by the NICD Centre for Vaccines and...nicd.ac.za
From above, Many are asking a very reasonable question: If detected cases are low but wastewater viral loads high, does this mean most cases are so mild that are going undetected? This is one hypothesis. The other is wastewater is a leading indicator. Time will tell.
I expect wastewater is leading indicator & clinical cases/hospitalizations will rise. Do I know this for sure? Nope. But there isn’t much in this virus sequence suggesting it should be very mild On other hand, Delta just blew through S Africa which should offer protection today